Larry House

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    • The Ultimate Game Changer: Why 2009 Will Be Worse Than 2008 (Part 1)
      Thanks for an excellent analysis. What makes me a little uneasy is I agree with everything you said. I am a retired but working Baby Boomer, and you have described my situation, attitude, and outlook perfectly--less spending, increasing savings, paying down debt, investing conservatively, etc. I definitely want to see part 2.
      Jan 07 11:22 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Some Positive Signs for Tech, But Not Enough Yet
      Thanks very much. Very insightful and useful.
      Jan 07 11:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The 'Reflation' Top Ten Portfolio
      Thanks, useful ideas. At least you are willing to make specific calls. That is refreshing even if opinions differ. I think your choices have good potential and limited downside. That is worth a lot right now.
      Jan 07 10:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Line U-6: A Sell Signal for Bulls and Bears
      Only time will tell if you are right or not, but thanks for the warning.
      Jan 06 10:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Market Valuation Signals from the 'Smart Money'
      Sorry, but this adds nothing meaningful, no new insight into the situation at hand.
      Jan 06 10:23 am |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • From Crunch to Catatonia
      It's hard to ask a person who is bleeding profusely if he/she wants to donate blood. That is how the banks look at lending. Consumer spending is likely to contract further as credit card issuers continue to reduce credit limits and increase lending rates. Also, consumers are learning to say no to spending to increase cash and pay down debt. We are entering a new era.
      Jan 05 16:14 pm |Rating: +14 -3 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Fairy Tales: Reassessing the Market Mindset
      Thanks, James, and iThinkBig makes some good points. I am selling into the current rally; I will probably leave some on the table, but I just don't trust any rally now. What has changed? We are in a multi-year correction. No hurry. Much more to be lost here than gained. I too think there will be some good long-term buys over the next few months as hopefully the fog lifts a bit.
      Jan 05 14:15 pm |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Reports of Equities' Death Are Greatly Exaggerated
      Thanks, Roger. Stocks may be dormant for a long time. We just don't know. We have NO way of knowing what the U.S. and world economy will look like when the processes we are going through now are completed. Caution is still a wise stance. For many people, Roger, stocks are dead because they have left the market and aren't coming back. The Baby Boomers, of which I am one, are just too far along in life to make a big bet on stocks in the next few years. Time is now working in our favor now. I own stocks and will continue to, but they probably will never make up 70% of my portfolio again. I posted a piece some time back about what we don't know, and we still don't know. We are in uncharted territory. How do you behave when you don't know what is going to happen next?
      Jan 05 11:52 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • The Riskiness of Bonds
      To remove all risk is to get next to nothing in return. That is ok for must-have money, one's cash reserve, but moving beyond that, risk increases as does return or potential return. Bonds certainly have their risks. I held Lehman bonds when that fine business went under. I and many others were betrayed by the rating agencies and others. However, in the overall scheme of things, good-quality bonds have RELATIVELY less risk than bonds. I respect your writings very much, Felix, but you are twisting your thesis from the original piece you referenced. I read it as well. No one can argue with your statement that bonds carry risks, no duh, but your previous argument was more general in denigrating bonds--not just from a risk perspective. Keep up the good work. Let this topic go, and move on to some other helpful topics.
      Jan 02 19:38 pm |Rating: +2 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Trust: The Biggest Casualty of 2008
      Dividendmachine, there are certainly risks in MO. There is a governement-backed campaign against their products. Earnings estimates are coming down. Their ability to continue to raise the dividend is in question. There are no "risk-free" investments available. We just have to assess the risk as best we can and see if there is a reasonable chance of success. I have owned MO from time to time, and I am not saying it won't do well, but success is just not a sure thing. I was always told, "Success is never certain; failure is never final." I guess that is why I am still investing in stocks and bonds, although my confidence has been seriously shaken. There are any "sure things" anywhere else either--that offer a resonable return.
      Jan 02 11:11 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Is Buying Bonds Really a Good Idea?
      Better-grade corporate bonds that can be held to maturity make a lot of sense right now. They won't look good if the stock market makes a V- bottom and heads much higher soon, but how likely is that? EVERYTHING is in question right now--growth or value, U.S. or foreign, oil and commodities, cash or not, stocks or bonds--every opinion is out there on every side. Keep it simple and keep expectations reasonable. This IS a time to lower risk. Wishing all SeekingAlpha readers and writiers a blessed, safe, and prosperous 2009.
      Dec 31 10:11 am |Rating: +2 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
    • YRC Worldwide: Time to Go Long
      The "road to recovery" may be a long one. It is too soon to buy the hope.
      Dec 23 11:05 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Valuing Assets: The Clueless Cadre
      Going forward--only what a buyer will pay. We are entering a new economic age, and previous values have no bearing on what things will be worth. Everything changes with leveraging out of the picture. My 2003 Ford truck was worth $11K a year ago; now it is worth maybe $7K. Obviously it is depreciating, but the size of the drop is because of the contraction in credit and the growing unwillingness of people to spend cash. Money is worth comparatively more than "things" right now, and it appears that will continue for who knows how long. It is better, in my view, to invest for an income stream now rather than going for growth. Growth is not as valuable now as an income stream--cash. The next decade is going to be a doozy.
      Dec 23 11:03 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • Dividend Paying Stocks: You Only Have to Be Lucky Once
      Dividends are a must right now, whether income is an investment objective or not. PIMCO, whether you love them or hate them, is advising bonds now and stocks later. It is hard to disagree with that advice. I have included a few stocks that yield about the same as A-rated bonds. I think it is important to keep modest expectations for returns and put safety first. The stock market is much too much like gambling right now, and I am not at all sure the little guy has a fair chance.
      Dec 22 17:24 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
    • S&P 500 at 600: Is It Possible?
      One other thing, Roger. You describe your approach to asset allocation as "top-down." Usually it is the "bottom-up" view that gets one in trouble in this kind of market because company fundamentals look good, but the only problem is the market has a mind of its own and doesn't care. Most "top-down" types are sitting on their hands right now doing nothing, which, in my view is the best advice. Until the "big picture" gets better, it doesn't matter what individual companies are doing.
      Dec 22 16:44 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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