redbaron

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  • eBay: Stock Fully Valued at Current Price
    Well reasoned, and perhaps the correct position.

    I however, still consider eBay a short. My logic is biased, due to my thoughts on managements recent decisions, but it is strengthened by decisions such as spending additional funds on the purchase of BillMeLater. How management thinks they can make money on BillMeLater, when the credit card companies are tightening credit terms due to non-payments, is besides me.

    Ebay cannot succede when they are treating their long-time customer base sellers in the manner they consistently are now doing. These customers will continue to leave them, over time, for other selling options, and without a change in either management, strategy, or both, I can see only long term negative growth for the company. Sellers are the only players actually paying eBay and PayPal fees, and hence, they are the customers, IMHO.

    Disclosure: long term short.
    Jan 06 10:49 am |Rating: +5 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Asset Allocation in 2009: Best to Go with the Devil You Know
    I should also add that I was not wise enough to buy at the lows on the list of small cap value stocks shown above, but instead bought on the way down before the bottom. Regardless, the positions have still done very well. (So Far!)

    If there is a lesson, it is that small cap low-priced, value stocks will usually outperform in a recovery phase of the market. In addition, one has the January effect that can also add to small cap value stocks performance in the first part of the year, and also the nice dividends that most of these stocks still pay.



    Jan 05 10:06 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Asset Allocation in 2009: Best to Go with the Devil You Know
    My group of small cap value stocks have all done better since the 11/20 bottom than the stocks on your list. I own Baldor (BEZ), Carpenter Technologies (CRS), FLOW International (FLOW), Joy Global (JOYG), Layne Christensen (LAYN), Manitowoc (MTW), Timken (TKR), Tyson (TSN), Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), Alcoa (AA), Ultralife Batteries (ULBI), Twin Disc (TWIN), and a few others. Many of these have already doubled, but then low priced stocks will always out-perform from an 'initial' bottom.
    Jan 05 00:03 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Time to Buy Water ETFs?
    My favorite stock is Layne Christensen, LAYN, and none of these funds own LAYN in their top 10 holdings. Why not just buy the stock?
    Jan 04 06:55 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Trust: The Biggest Casualty of 2008
    I certainly agree that trust has been seriously erroded in 2008, but at the same time I also remember that a similar situation existed in October of 1987, when the Dow declined 23% (or so) in one day. At that time my long time friend and broker told me that he had customers that had lost so much trust in the stock market that they would never again invest in stocks. We Americans recovered from that situation to see the Dow move up many fold over the next two decades, and it is my thought that we will recover again from this current situation. When that will happen is a larger question, and I am not wise enough to predict the future.

    At the same time, I can see that some of the small cap value stocks that I follow have already doubled from their lows in November, and one or two nearly tripled. One could argue that the recovery is already underway, but there is so much negativism in the press today that I am afraid to try to make that case. A real contrarian would not hesitate to go ahead and make that case, but I will refrain. Regardless, I for one believe that sentiment will recover, and trust restored, at some point soon. When that does happen, no doubt the value stocks I follow will be considerably higher than they are now, and way off their lows in Nov.
    Jan 02 10:04 am |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • eBay: The PayPal Factor
    It occurs to me that with credit card companies having increased trouble collecting payments from card holders that was just recently announced, that perhaps eBay might also have increased trouble with collecting payments made through the BillMeLater option. Credit card stocks are down, and that to me would seem to be a negative for eBay and BillMeLater. Why would eBay be immune from this trend?
    IMHO
    Dec 31 07:02 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Happened to the American Dream?
    I should also add the political over-tones bother me with this article, as he promotes Ron Paul, and bashes Obama (before he is even in office), while completely overlooking the Bushies of the last 8 years.

    I find much to agree with in the analysis of the past, but that does not give a clear pathway for future economic decisions.

    I would prefer to give Obama a chance here in this situation, as he has Paul Volcker as an economic consultant here and now. As I see it, we Americans have very little choice now, but to put our efforts and our faith behind the new administration. To do less than what we have done in previous administration changes, is not right, fair, or in our national interest.
    Dec 25 08:13 am |Rating: +7 -7 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Happened to the American Dream?
    Great analysis, but very short on solutions.
    Dec 25 07:02 am |Rating: +4 -4 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Why Does Cramer Have a Beef with Leveraged ETFs?
    I agree, and could not see the logic in Cramer ragging on the leveraged ETF's. To me, this is just a leveraged short, and is a nice tool to have for the average investor, especially so in this market.
    Dec 24 07:06 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Will Become of eBay?
    What happened to Dianah's eBay post on SA? Is SA allowing eBay to delete posts here? And if that is indeed what is happening, where is free speech and dissent going next? Anything negative to eBay has been deleted on their boards for years, but deleting it here in the public arena is something new, at least to me. Perhaps I've not been watching close enough, but I hadn't seen this before. With all the dumb and uninteligent posts that SA allows, it would seem only proper that someone with inside eBay experience should be allowed to post thoughts on what is actually happening within the company. SA, are you listening. IMHO
    Dec 22 09:44 am |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • What Will Become of eBay?
    Ebay, in my opinion, is broken, but not permamently. All they really need to do is get back to what worked before. I have sold there since the beginning in 1996, and the new management has alieneated both buyers and sellers with their 2008 changes. It is not too late to go back to the model that worked for the previous 12 years, but first one must admit that the most recent changes have been a mistake. One very basic mistake they have most recently made is forgetting that it is sellers who pay all the fees, which, IMHO, makes sellers the customers. Some communication with sellers would go a long way to improving the site, but first management must be willing to do that. Go back to your roots, Ebay, back to basics, and it is not too late to turn this all around.
    Dec 21 20:19 pm |Rating: +4 -1 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Eight Stocks to Benefit from Increased Water Infrastructure Spending
    My favorite is Layne Christensen, LAYN, which is in 4 different buisnesses. Not only is it the largest water well driller in the US, it is also in enviornmental remediation wells, and mineral and energy exploration well drilling (and related businesses). Layne Christensen is big in the western US, and one would think that with water there in scarcity, it would be in a position to benefit. I have bought it on similar down-turns many times in the past, and it has never disappointed me with significant returns. I own LAYN.
    Dec 21 11:23 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Sector Overview: Internet Stocks
    The eBay model is broken, and current management has made it worse. The stock has bounced up a little currently, and this should be used as an opportunity to sell. Again, short this stock if you don't own it, and sell it, if you do. The bottom is not yet in sight.

    No company can succeed using a strategy like they have now implemented, treating their customers like they are now treating theirs.
    Dec 14 06:40 am |Rating: +1 -2 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Poor Performance Often Linked to Excessive Executive Pay
    AI, as I recall, it was the CEO of P&G, who was so outspoken about the need for a new generation of American workers who were better educated and more flexible, during the down-sizing that happened during the 1990's. While I haven't tried to research the individuals involved, either then or now, one now has to wonder if the need for change might have been slightly mis-placed. What goes around, often comes around again, but with a slightly different emphasis.
    Dec 09 13:10 pm |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment |View article
  • Gold and Silver Prices Will Begin to Shine
    I agree. Gold is a holding for inflation, not the deflation we are apparently experiencing. Gold has begun to look cheap here, but it can certainly get cheaper (as if we needed any lesson on that concept.)


    On Dec 05 05:22 AM Marketer25 wrote:

    > This fellow's comments ought to come with a warning message. That
    > being he hasn't got a clue.
    > Yes, I know this "comment" section is not a forum to discredit authors
    > but nor should authors use Seeking Alpha to relentlessly and desperately
    > try to pump their own holdings.
    > For the record, I do not own AUY but this fellow does and has been
    > recommending it all the way down.
    Dec 05 07:47 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment |View article

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